When it comes to breeding and buying racehorses, most people are flying blind. They make decisions based on gut feelings, trends or outdated pedigree theories. And then they wonder why their six-figure yearling never makes it past an allowance race.
Here’s the hard truth: Breeding isn’t luck. It’s science.
At Shepherd Equine Advisers, we’ve built a data-driven system that takes the guesswork out of breeding. It’s called OPTIMAL Matings and it’s been responsible for multiple graded stakes winners, including a Kentucky Derby champion.
If you’re investing in racehorses, whether as a breeder or buyer, you need a structured approach. Here’s what you need to know to stop wasting money on bad bets and start making decisions that stack the odds in your favor.
The Problem: Why Most Breeding Decisions Fail
Most breeders and investors think they have a system, but in reality, they’re relying on myths, outdated tools and bad advice.
Here’s how that plays out:
- They breed to a popular stallion instead of the right genetic match.
- They chase nicking scores, ignoring deeper pedigree balance.
- They assume a high stud fee = guaranteed success (it doesn’t).
- They pick yearlings based on physical conformation alone, missing genetic weaknesses.
- They trust bloodstock agents who rely on sales trends over science.
The result? Horses that never reach their full potential, massive financial losses and years of wasted breeding opportunities.
If you’ve spent six or seven figures on horses that didn’t perform, this is why.
The good news? There’s a better way.
The Solution: A Data-Driven Approach to Breeding & Selection
At Shepherd Equine Advisers, we developed OPTIMAL Matings, a structured, scientific method for breeding and selecting superior racehorses. It’s not about trends or tradition. It’s about predicting success before it happens.
Here’s what goes into a winning formula:
- Running Numbers – Identifying the strongest racing bloodlines.
- Sire Numbers – Tracing elite stallion-producing families.
- Outcross Percentage – Ensuring genetic diversity, avoiding inbreeding risks.
- Duplication Count – Balancing genetic contributions from both parents.
- Second-Generation Balance – Structuring durable, high-performance pedigrees.
- Gender-Balanced Linebreeding – Maximizing hybrid vigor, reducing inherited weaknesses.
This approach takes the randomness out of breeding. When we used this model for Dalicia, a mare in need of a stallion, the commercial pick was Medaglia d’Oro. Our analysis pointed to Leroidesanimaux. We fought for that decision, and the result? Animal Kingdom, Kentucky Derby champion.
How to Apply This to Your Own Breeding Program
If you want to breed or buy a future winner, stop guessing. Here’s how to apply a structured, scientific approach to your decisions.
Step 1: Forget About “Trendy” Stallions
Most people pick stallions based on stud fee, hype, or auction results. That’s a mistake.
Instead, ask:
- Does this stallion have the right genetic balance for my mare?
- Does he bring the right blend of speed and stamina?
- Is he an outcross, or does he reinforce bad genetic patterns?
For example, if your mare already has a concentration of Northern Dancer, don’t double down on it unless the structure supports it. This is where pedigree science wins over gut feeling.
Step 2: Use Data, Not Emotion, to Pick Yearlings
Buying a horse at auction? Most investors rely on:
- Conformation (looks good = must be fast)
- Sales trends (high-priced siblings = must be a star)
- Bloodstock agents (who often follow the market instead of the science)
Here’s a smarter approach:
- Check genetic balance before you even look at the horse.
- Evaluate running numbers—does this pedigree consistently produce winners?
- Analyze outcross percentages—is this horse genetically sound or a potential breakdown risk?
A beautiful horse with a bad genetic structure is still a bad investment.
Common Breeding Myths That Are Costing You Money
If you’re making decisions based on these, stop now:
❌ “Nick ratings are all that matter.”
👉 Nick ratings are surface-level. They don’t factor in genetic balancing, inbreeding risks or stamina compatibility.
❌ “Stud fees = success.”
👉 High fees don’t mean better odds. Some of the best-producing stallions started at lower fees before their value was recognized.
❌ “Breed the best to the best.”
👉 The best stallions don’t work with every mare. Compatibility matters more than raw talent.
❌ “Physical conformation is king.”
👉 A well-built horse with genetic weaknesses will still fail at the track.
❌ “Great sires always produce great runners.”
👉 Even top stallions produce duds if paired incorrectly. The mare’s compatibility is just as important.
How to Get Started with a Smarter Breeding & Buying Strategy
If you’re ready to stop wasting money on bad breeding and buying decisions, here’s what to do next:
- Evaluate Your Current Stock
- Are you choosing stallions based on trends or genetics?
- Are your yearlings bred for racing success or just auction hype?
- Have you eliminated inbreeding risks and ensured genetic diversity?
- Apply Proven Selection Criteria
- Use pedigree science, not just conformation, to select yearlings.
- Identify running numbers and outcross percentages before choosing a breeding match.
- Factor in seven-generation genetic structure instead of just nick ratings.
- Work with Experts Who Use Data, Not Guesswork
- Most bloodstock agents rely on market trends instead of deep pedigree analysis.
- Find advisors who analyze data-backed breeding compatibility, not just hype.
- Don’t rely on outdated selection methods—use a structured formula.
Final Thoughts: The Game Has Changed—Are You Keeping Up?
The old way of breeding and buying racehorses is failing more people than it helps. The difference between winning and losing isn’t luck. It’s science, structure and selecting the right bloodlines before the horse ever hits the track.
If you’re still making decisions based on intuition or sales trends, you’re throwing money away.
If you want higher ROI, better racing success and fewer expensive mistakes, the solution is simple: use a data-driven approach.
At Shepherd Equine Advisers, we’ve helped breed and select champions. If you’re serious about producing a winner, it’s time to stop guessing and start using OPTIMAL Matings.
👉 Want to breed or buy a future winner? Let’s talk.
Outdated pedigree analysis leads to poor breeding and buying decisions. Shepherd Equine Advisers uses OPTIMAL Matings to analyze genetic potential. Resulting in racehorses that excel on the track and increased profitability.
