For decades, the phrase “Breed the best to the best, and hope for the best” has echoed through the thoroughbred breeding world. It sounds logical, almost foolproof—take two elite racehorses, and you’ll get another champion. But here’s the truth: that’s a multi-million-dollar myth that has cost breeders more money than they’d ever want to admit.
Why “Breed the Best to the Best” is Flawed
If elite matings guaranteed elite offspring, every Kentucky Derby winner would be the son or daughter of another Derby winner. But that’s not the case. Many high-priced matings result in underperformers, unsound horses, or outright failures.
Take The Green Monkey, for example. This colt, bred from big names and purchased for a staggering $16 million, never won a single race. His pedigree structure lacked the reinforcement of dominant traits necessary for consistent performance. This is proof that breeding isn’t just about stacking famous names together—it’s about pedigree compatibility.
Breeding two fast horses doesn’t automatically produce a faster one. Without structure, balance, and careful genetic reinforcement, you’re throwing darts in the dark, hoping for a bullseye.
What You Should Be Doing Instead
Success in breeding isn’t about flashy names—it’s about pedigree strategy. If you want to maximize your chances of producing a winner, you need to stop thinking like a gambler and start thinking like a data analyst.
Here’s how to do it right:
Start with the Mare
Your mare contributes 50% of the foal’s genetic material, but more importantly, she dictates how those genes are expressed. Before choosing a stallion, analyze her strengths, weaknesses, and pedigree structure.
Ask: Does she lack speed? Stamina? Durability? Soundness? Find a stallion that fills those gaps rather than just chasing the hottest commercial name.
Select a Stallion for Genetic Reinforcement, Not Hype
Stud fees are not a predictor of success. Just because a stallion stands for $200,000 doesn’t mean he’s the right match for your mare.
Look for pedigree compatibility—does he reinforce dominant traits? Is there an outcross opportunity that reduces inbreeding risk? Is there gender-balanced linebreeding that increases hybrid vigor?
Use a 7-Generation Analysis
Most breeders stop at nick ratings or basic five-cross pedigrees. That’s not enough.
A seven-generation analysis identifies proper balance, gender-line reinforcement, and outcross percentages, giving you a true picture of genetic strength rather than surface-level appeal.
Actionable Steps to Fix Your Breeding Strategy
1. Look Beyond Nick Ratings
Nick ratings only skim the surface. They tell you which crosses have worked well in the past but ignore deeper structural issues. Instead, focus on:
- Second-generation influence
- The balance between speed and stamina contributors
- Strength of female family lines
2. Don’t Chase Expensive Stallions Blindly
- A stallion’s fee is not a performance guarantee. Many high-fee stallions have poor strike rates.
- Instead, research their foals’ success rates, soundness records, and how their offspring match with specific broodmare lines.
3. Track Your Past Matings
- If you’ve been breeding for years without consistent winners, it’s time to re-evaluate your strategy.
- Compare your past breeding decisions with race results. Were you choosing stallions based on fees or genetics? Identify what worked and what didn’t.
The Cost of Believing the Breeding Myth
Breeders who fall into the “best to best” trap waste millions on failed matings. They breed for marketability rather than performance and end up with horses that never make it past maiden races.
On the other hand, those who prioritize pedigree compatibility over industry hype breed winners with consistency, not just luck.
There’s a Better Way
OPTIMAL Matings is designed to take the guesswork out of breeding. We use proven, data-driven methods to analyze seven generations of pedigree balance, ensuring your next foal has the highest probability of success.
Want to start making breeding decisions based on data, not superstition? Let’s build your next winner the right way.
